More Homeowners Now Have 6%+ Mortgages Than Sub-3% — Here’s What That Means for You

For the past few years, one idea has dominated real estate conversations: “Homeowners are stuck because they’re locked into ultra-low mortgage rates.”

That theory — often called mortgage rate lockdown — helped explain tight inventory and limited movement following the rapid rise in interest rates. But new data shows that narrative is starting to break down.

Today, more homeowners carry mortgage rates above 6% than those with rates under 3%, and the shift has been building steadily for years.

The Data Tells a Clear Story

Since early 2022, the mortgage landscape has changed dramatically.

Here’s what the numbers show:

Homeowners with mortgage rates at 6% or higher

• Q1 2022: 6.99%

• Q3 2025: 21.2%

  
  

That’s a tripling of homeowners already living with higher rates.

Homeowners with mortgage rates at 3% or lower

• Q1 2022: 24.58%

• Q3 2025: 20%

  
  

The pool of ultra-low-rate homeowners — once the backbone of the “lockdown” argument — is shrinking.

Homeowners with rates between 3% and 4%

• Q1 2022: 40.48%

• Q3 2025: 31.5%

  
  

Even the middle ground is thinning out, as more borrowers transition into higher-rate territory over time.

Bottom line: We’re seeing clear growth in higher-rate mortgages and a steady decline in lower-rate ones.

Why the ‘Mortgage Rate Lockdown’ Argument Is Fading

Early on, the fear was understandable: giving up a 2–3% rate felt unthinkable.

But fast forward a few years and reality has set in.

• Life events don’t pause for interest rates

• Families grow, shrink, and relocate

• Job changes happen

• Adjustable and newer loans reset higher

• And more homeowners are already accustomed to 6%+ payments

  
  

When a growing share of homeowners already live with higher rates, the psychological barrier to moving becomes much lower.

People stop asking, “Can I afford to give up my rate?” And start asking, “Does this move still make sense for my life?”

What This Means for Sellers

If you assumed inventory would stay frozen indefinitely, this data suggests otherwise.

As more homeowners:

• Already carry higher rates

• Normalize today’s borrowing environment

• Prioritize lifestyle decisions

  
  

…we’re likely to see gradual increases in movement, not a sudden flood, but enough to matter.

That’s an important shift for sellers, buyers, and anyone planning ahead.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, this trend helps explain why:

• Homes are still coming to market

• Sellers are more open to negotiations

• The market feels more balanced than headlines suggest

  
  

Higher rates haven’t stopped transactions — they’ve simply changed expectations.

The Bigger Takeaway

Mortgage rates matter. But they’re only one piece of a much larger decision.

The data shows that the market isn’t frozen — it’s adjusting.

And as more homeowners move away from ultra-low rates and into today’s reality, mobility increases, even in a higher-rate environment.

So What Should You Do With This Information?

Instead of focusing solely on the rate you have — or the rate you might get — it’s worth asking:

• Does this move improve my quality of life?

• Does it make financial sense long-term?

• Does it align with where I’m headed next?

  
  

Those questions matter more than a single number.

If you want to talk through how today’s mortgage landscape affects your specific situation — whether you’re buying, selling, or just planning ahead — I’m always happy to have a straightforward conversation.